Aviezer Tucker
（2004年刊行，Cambridge University Press，ISBN:0521834155）
【目次】Introduction: The Philosophy of Historiography 1
The Philosophy of Scientific Historiography 3
Historiographic Knowledge 6
Philosophy of Historiographic Interpretation 10
Philosophy of History 14
The Research Program 171. Consensus and Historiographic Knowledge 23
Knowledge of History vs. Skepticism and Esotericism 23
Consensus and Knowledge 24
Critique of Consensus as a Process 25
The Epistemic Significance of Consensus on Beliefs 27
Uncoarced 28
Uniquely Heterogeneous Consensus on Beliefs 29
Sufficiently Large Consensus 34
Cognitive Values and Consensus on Beliefs 26
Historiographic Consensus and Excommunication 392. The History of Knowledge of History 46
Biblical Criticism 53
Classical Philology 59
Comparative Linguistics 63
Scientific Historiography 68
Evolutionary Biology 85
Second-stage Evolutionary Biology and Comparative Linguistics 87
The Historical Sciences 903. The Theory of Scientific Historiography 92
Bayesianism and Historiographic Confirmation 95
Comparison of Likelihoods : Concise Baysianism 99
The Historical Sciences 100
The Meaning of Token Common Cause Explanation 102
How to Infer Common Causes? 104
Prior Probability of the Common Cause Hypothesis 110
Likelihood of a Variational Group Given Some Common Cause 111
Evaluating the Separate Causes Hypothesis 112
Comparison of Likelihoods 115
Alternative Common Cause Hypotheses 117
Inferring the Properties of Particular Common Causes 119
Fidelity and Likelihoods Given Competing Common Causes 121
Constant Rates of Fidelity 124
Formal Fidelity 133
Bayesianism and Historiography 1344. Historiographic Opinion 141
Comparative Historiography 151
Comparison with Social Science Theories 160
Underdetermined Historiography 162
Traditionalist Science 167
The Semantics of Traditionalist Historiography 177
The Fable of the "Card Game" 183
Historiographic Traditions are not Historical 1835. Historiographic Explanation 185
Best among Competing Explanations 191
Traditionalist Explanations 197
Common Cause Explanations of Descriptions of Events 199
Historiographic Enderstanding (Verstehen) 2006. The Limits of Historiographic Knowledge 208
Discarding the Old Arguments 210
Complexity 215
Coincidence 218
Historical Contingency and Necessity 220
Counterfactuals and the Evaluation of Historical Necessity and Contingency 227
Reformulating the Question 240
Uniqueness 2407. Conclusion: Historiography and History 254
References 263
Notes 279
Index 287
