『The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy』

Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

(2011年4月刊行,Yale University Press, New Haven, xiv+320 pp., ISBN:9780300169690 [hbk] → 版元ページ

速攻でブツが届いた.統計学が中心テーマの本なのに「数式」がみごとにひとつもない.これはスゴいことかもしれない.それにしても長いサブタイトルだ.テレビ番組の二時間ドラマの宣伝文句みたい.著者は日経サイエンスにも寄稿している:S. B. マグレイン「ベイズ規則の応用広がる」日経サイエンス2011年7月号,pp. 20-21.

【目次】
Preface and Note to Readers ix
Acknowledgments xii


Part I. Enlightenment and the Anti-Bayesian Reaction 1

 1. Causes in the Air 3
 2. The Man Who Did Everything 13
 3. Many Doubts, Few Defenders 34


Part II. Second World War Era 59

 4. Bayes Goes to War 61
 5. Dead and Buried Again 87


Part III. The Glorious Revival 89

 6. Arthur Bailey 91
 7. From Tool to Theology 97
 8. Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, and Heart Attacks 108
 9. There's Always a First Time 119
 10. 46,656 Varieties 129


Part IV. To Prove Its Truth 137

 11. Business Decisions 139
 12. Who Wrote The Federalist ? 154
 13. The Cold Warrior 163
 14. Three Mile Island 176
 15. The Navy Searches 182


Part IV. Victory 211

 16. Eureka! 213
 17. Rosetta Stones 233


Appendixes 253

 Dr. Fisher's Casebook 253
 Applying Bayes's Rule to Mammograms and Breast Cancer 255


Notes 259
Glossary 271
Bibliography 275
Index 307