Elliott Sober
（2008年4月21日刊行，Cambridge University Press，Cambridge，xx + 392 pp.，ISBN:9780521871884 [hbk] / ISBN:9780521692748 [pbk] → 著者サイト｜正誤表[pdf]）
【目次】
List of figures ix
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xix1 The concept of evidence 1
1.1 Royall’s three questions 3
1.2 The ABCs of Bayesianism 8
1.3 Likelihoodism 32
1.4 Frequentism I: Significance tests and probabilistic modus tollens 48
1.5 Frequentism II: Neyman--Pearson hypothesis testing 58
1.6 A test case: Stopping rules 72
1.7 Frequentism III: Model-selection theory 78
1.8 A second test case: Reasoning about coincidences 104
1.9 Concluding comments 1072 Intelligent design 109
2.1 Darwin and intelligent design 109
2.2 Design arguments and the birth of probability theory 113
2.3 William Paley: The stone, the watch, and the eye 118
2.4 From probabilities to likelihoods 120
2.5 Epicureanism and Darwin’s theory 122
2.6 Three reactions to Paley’s design argument 125
2.7 The no-designer-worth-his-salt objection to the hypothesis of intelligent design 126
2.8 Popper’s criterion of falsifiability 129
2.9 Sharpening the likelihood argument 131
2.10 The principle of total evidence 136
2.11 Some strengths of the likelihood formulation of the design argument 139
2.12 The Achilles heel of the likelihood argument 141
2.13 Paley’s stone 147
2.14 Testability 148
2.15 The relationship of the organismic design argument to Darwinism 154
2.16 The relationship of Paley’s design argument to contemporary intelligent-design theory 154
2.17 The relationship of the design argument to the argument from evil 163
2.18 The design argument as an inductive sampling argument 166
2.19 Model selection and intelligent design 176
2.20 The politics and legal status of the intelligent-design hypothesis 183
2.21 Darwinism, theism, and religion 185
2.22 A prediction 1873 Natural selection 189
3.1 Selection plus drift (SPD) versus pure drift (PD) 192
3.2 Comparing the likelihoods of the SPD and PD hypotheses 199
3.3 Filling in the blanks 201
3.4 What if the fitness function of the SPD hypothesis contains a valley? 212
3.5 Selection versus drift for a dichotomous character 215
3.6 A breath of fresh air: Change the explanandum 219
3.7 Model selection and unification 226
3.8 Reichenbach’s principle of the common cause 230
3.9 Testing selection against drift with molecular data 235
3.10 Selection versus phylogenetic inertia 243
3.11 The chronological test 252
3.12 Concluding comments 2614 Common ancestry 264
4.1 Modus Darwin 265
4.2 What the CA hypothesis asserts 268
4.3 A Bayesian decomposition 275
4.4 A single character: Species matching and species mismatching 277
4.5 More than one character 295
4.7 Concluding comments on the evidential significance of similarity 310
4.8 Evidence other than similarity 314
4.9 Phylogenetic inference: The contest between likelihood and cladistic parsimony 332
Conclusion 353Bibliography 368
Index 385
